As U.S. voters head to the polls today to elect their next president in one of the tightest elections in recent years, Canadians will be watching closely, not only to see who wins but what the results will mean for our country.

According to a recent survey from polling company Leger, seven in 10 Canadians are interested in the U.S. election, and the Calgary Chamber of Commerce found 72 per cent of Albertans are following the race. 

It’s fair to say the presidential race has piqued Canadians’ interest, but how exactly would a Harris or Trump administration affect Alberta specifically — and why should we even care?

Below is an analysis of five key areas where the province and country will see changes from either a Kamala Harris or a Donald Trump presidency and what it all means for relations between the two nations. 

Trade

The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, with roughly $3.6 billion of goods and services crossing the 49th parallel each day in 2023. Alberta alone exported just over $156 billion to the U.S. last year. 

In particular, our energy, agriculture and small business sectors are most critical. Canada is the U.S.’s single largest foreign energy supplier, providing an average of 4.6 million BOE (barrel of oil equivalent) per day. Agriculture constitutes 7 per cent of Canada’s GDP and 79 per cent of the revenue small businesses generate come from exports to the U.S. 

While experts have said a Harris presidency wouldn’t change much, a Trump government would bring significant changes.

Harris: Not much would shift in terms of trade if Harris wins the election, but the vice president has said she would look at renegotiating the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which replaced NAFTA in 2018. This free-trade agreement is crucial for Canadian companies and changes to it could affect revenue streams for businesses in Calgary and across the country.

Trump: A lot could change if Trump gains the presidency. While he has also said he would negotiate the trade agreement, his plans to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all U.S. imports would be much more damaging. Not only would the cost of Canadian exports rise, but American consumers would buy less, disturbing the flow of goods with our most important trade partner.  

Former president Donald Trump at the 2023 Turning Point Action Conference in West Palm Beach, Fla. If elected, Trump says he plans to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all U.S. imports, which could cause the cost of Canadian exports to rise and damage the trade relationship between both countries. PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE/FLICKR Credit: Gage Skidmore

Economy

In Alberta, Premier Danielle Smith said in September a Republican White House could open up space for discussions about pipeline projects, specifically the Keystone XL pipeline, which Biden cancelled three years ago. 

Closely linked to the potential effects on trade, Harris’ policies would likely be less destructive to Canada’s economy than Trump’s. Experts are also worried uncertainty around when the winner will be known could have a destabilizing effect on financial markets. 

Harris: With a relatively vague economic agenda, many experts and analysts believe Harris will stick to most of the same policies as the Biden administration. There could be increases in spending and tax revenue, and a slight protectionist shift to focus on the domestic economy and environment, but Harris is largely viewed as being more open to working with other nations.

Trump: Experts are warning against Trump’s “extreme protectionist” policies, meant to secure the American economy and make it more self-sufficient. While campaigning, Trump has called himself the “tariff man,” and his proposed taxes could cause Canadian GDP to drop by as much as 1.7 per cent by the end of 2028, according to CBC News. The Canadian loonie is already in a bad spot — trading at just above 70 cents — and an economic downturn could push its value below that.

Vice-President Kamala Harris at a campaign rally in Glendale, Ariz. Experts and analysts believe her economic agenda will remain similar to the Biden administration’s, with potential increases in spending and tax revenue. PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE/FLICKR Credit: Gage Skidmore

Immigration

According to a recent Gallup poll, 41 per cent of Americans said immigration was an “extremely important” issue in this election. While migration from Mexico to the U.S. is still high, U.S. Customs and Border Control data shows a 78 per cent drop from December 2023 to September 2024, while migration from Canada to the U.S. has increased by around 52 per cent. 

While immigration is regulated by the federal government, not the provincial one, the outcome of the election could still put pressure on Alberta’s border crossings. Even though both candidates will be looking to address the strain high migration rates place on the U.S.’s borders, Trump is taking a more hardline approach.

Harris: To address immigration the vice-president has two main goals: continue the limits Biden’s government placed on asylum seekers and revive an immigration reform bill from earlier this year. Experts have said Harris’ approach will be more collaborative and in line with what Canada and other countries have already done, while increasing public pressure to shore up immigration screening measures and reduce the number of people crossing the northern border. 

Trump: On the other hand, Trump is more concerned with illegal migration and the mass deportation of around 10 million undocumented immigrants. He also plans to set more detention centres for illegal migrants and to complete his infamous wall along the Mexican border. If his mass deportation plans become a reality, that could send a wave of immigrants fleeing to Canada, in turn overwhelming our borders. Global News also reported a Scotiabank Economics analysis predicted deportation could cause Canada’s GDP to drop by one per cent as many temporary foreign workers — who also work in Canada — would be caught up in the expulsions.   

The Peace Arch near the Blaine-Douglas Border Crossing connecting Surrey, B.C. and Blaine, Wash. on Mar. 12, 2012. Immigration has been a top concern for many Americans, with 41 per cent saying it was an “extremely important” issue. PHOTO: ABHINABA BASU/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Defence spending

Foreign policy hasn’t been a core piece of either candidates’ platform but questions remain about how both will address military alliances such as NATO and NORAD, specifically when it comes to Canada’s contribution to the former. Each NATO member is expected to spend two per cent of their GDP in defence, with Canada falling below that target at 1.29 per cent. 

Although Alberta has little to do with national defence, experts said in July an increase in spending could deepen Canada’s economic deficit and force cuts, which would have wide-reaching effects for the provinces and territories. Harris and Trump will both likely pressure Canada to pull more of its weight, but to varying degrees. 

Harris: The Democratic candidate is more supportive of NATO, and while she will lean on the Canadian government to spend its share, experts have said she will be more open to compromise. Her government will likely continue Biden’s emphasis on America’s allies and international alliances.

Trump: In the past, the Republican Party leader has criticized the Canadian government for not committing enough to the military alliance. Political analysts have said Canada will need to do more if it wants to build a positive relationship with a second Trump administration, especially in light of Trump suggesting he may remove the U.S. from NATO altogether.   

All members of NATO are required to spend at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence, with Canada falling well below the mark at 1.29 per cent. While both Harris and Trump will put pressure on the Canadian government to increase its contribution, the former will be more open to compromise with the latter being more openly critical of Canada not pulling its weight. PHOTO: NATO NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION/FLICKR

Canadian politics

Canada will have its own federal election to deal with less than a year from now — or sooner, if parliament breaks down. While Nanos polling shows Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have around a 13-point lead nationally over the Liberals and NDP, whichever candidate wins the U.S. election could affect each leaders’ fortunes heading into 2025, while shaping how the electorate may vote. 

For Alberta, it’s not clear if or how either candidate would affect provincial politics, but any effect on federal politics could trickle-down to the province, especially considering Smith’s policies align better with Poilievre’s rather than Trudeau’s. 

Harris: The prime minister already has a positive relationship with Harris, who also spent her teenage years in Montreal and is said to have a “soft spot” for the country. Others have said that pre-existing relationship could be crucial when it comes down to effective economic and foreign policy negotiations. On the flip side, the Democratic Party saw a surge in support after they replaced Joe Biden with Harris, and if she wins it could show the Liberal Party — which has been grappling with its own leadership demons — the merit in replacing an unpopular leader with a fresh face ahead of an election. 

Trump: Some Liberal MPs have tried to link Poilievre and Trump, arguing their policies and political stance are similar. But while they share some populist tendancies, experts have said the two are quite different, especially when it comes to their backgrounds and attitudes toward immigration. CTV News reported a Trump administration could also “drive a wedge between Canadian Conservatives and their voters” as many are still quite moderate in their political beliefs and would not accept a close Poilievre-Trump relationship.

Report an Error or Typo

Kelsea Arnett is a fourth year journalism student. She has bylines in The Globe and Mail and CBC Calgary, and has written on a variety of topics from energy transition to provincial politics.