By Leah Pelletier, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Rocky Mountain Outlook in the Bow Valley
A La Niña winter could be in the cards for the Bow Valley and Kananaskis Country this 2025-26 season.
Often characterized by colder, snowier winters, the emerging La Niña weather pattern is good news for ski season across Western Canada — exactly what conditions will be dealt, experts say, it’s still too early to tell for sure.
The Potential
“What we’re seeing is a chance of La Niña conditions in the fall and early winter [although] relatively short-lived,” said Christy Climenhaga, scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
While a step in the right direction for skiers, with what’s known as a weaker or short-lived La Niña being forecast, it doesn’t mean consistent snowfall and cooler temps are promised all winter long.
“Generally, during a La Niña year, the Canadian Rockies will see cooler winters, more snow in the mountains. They’re often associated with those ski seasons with lots of snow, but it does depend on the strength of the La Niña,” said Climenhaga.
“That does give you the potential for very cold conditions, but it doesn’t necessarily mean every month is going to be very, very cold,” she said.
“…It just loads the dice in that kind of direction.”
On the Hills
While Climenhaga says forecasts are still “settling” and neither warmer-than-normal nor cooler-than-normal temperatures are presenting themselves yet, comparable years with weaker La Niñas were the 2022-23 and 2017-18 seasons.
The 2017-18 season at Sunshine Village in Banff proved to be a dreamy year for skiers with 300 inches of total snowfall throughout the season, according to a historical report from OntheSnow, a ski and snow report app.
However, 2022-23 wasn’t quite as memorable with only 161 inches of recorded total snowfall.
The Forecast
“Temperatures will be interesting to see. … Our forecast temperature-wise can change quite a bit. I mean, so far, we’ve kind of got that warmer pattern that still lingers for much of the fall,” said Climenhaga.
“Our longer-range forecast for temperatures aren’t holding quite as much of a signal.”
Opposite of El Niño, La Niña conditions are caused by cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures building up in the Equatorial Pacific.
“It just depends on where you are on that spectrum. If you get below that 0.5 degree [Celsius] index that’s when we kind of do that flip over,” said Climenhaga.
“I think we had like a very brief La Niña pattern [last year], like very, very brief towards the end of the winter. But again, not very strong, very short-lived,” added Climenhaga.
Across the Region
The Old Farmer’s 2025 Almanac predicts that winter across Southern Alberta will be colder than normal and snowiest in mid to late November, early and late December, early January, mid-February and early March.
A weather forecast and snow report website, OpenSnow, also predicts cooler temperatures and above normal snowfall across most of the B.C., Alberta region for the 2025-26 season.
This forecast is noted as stronger within the B.C. interior and Canadian Rockies.
“As we get into the fall, we’ll keep an eye on forecast and see how things are trending and that’ll firm up exactly what we’ll expect. …We’ll see what each month holds and if we do see more of that cooling trend,” said Climenhaga.
This story by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 17, 2025.