By Brett McKay, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Investigative Journalism Foundation
Separatism. Sovereignty. Statehood. Danielle Smith has repeatedly invoked the idea of Alberta independence during her time in office. But documents obtained by the Investigative Journalism Foundation suggest the provincial government is not seriously studying this economic scenario.
In his decades with the public service, Lennie Kaplan, former senior manager for the Fiscal and Economic Policy division of Alberta’s finance ministry, often took the long view, trying to anticipate how government policies or world events would affect the province’s economic plans.
“We did a lot of modelling, specifically on different types of policies and how they would impact the Alberta economy, how they would impact the fiscal situation of the province,” Kaplan told the IJF.
Part strategic planning and part risk management, Kaplan said this modeling was intended to evaluate early-stage policy proposals to help guide government responses and prevent major economic upsets – like those that might arise if Alberta was to break from confederation.
Freedom of information requests
With a referendum seemingly being taken seriously by the Smith government, Kaplan started filing access to information requests with the treasury department and Executive Council, seeking records showing modelling and analysis of the economic and fiscal impacts arising from Alberta’s separation.
Kaplan’s requests for briefing notes, memoranda, studies, reports and PowerPoint presentations related to various sovereignty scenarios – Alberta becoming a separate country, Alberta joining Saskatchewan and Manitoba and becoming a separate country, and Alberta becoming a U.S. state – all yielded the same response: After a thorough search by department staff, “no records responsive to your request were located.”
UCP lowers threshold for referendums
A day after Prime Minister Mark Carney led the Liberals to their fourth consecutive election victory, Smith’s government introduced legislation lowering the threshold for citizen-initiated referendums. Two petition applications dealing with Alberta independence have since been submitted to Elections Alberta, one asking whether the province should remain within Canada and the other asking if Alberta should “become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada.”
Smith has said her government could allow a separation referendum as early as next year.
Kaplan believes the lack of planning demonstrates the Alberta government isn’t putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to potentially leaving the country.
“It’s in the public discourse. There are organizations that want to put this on the ballot. They changed the legislation to reduce the number of signatures needed. There’s a good possibility that it might be on the ballot…so let’s have an objective analysis of what the impact will be,” Kaplan said.
“If you’re going to have a referendum campaign where people are going to vote on (separation), you should know what the costs and benefits are.”
Smith beng ‘kind of cute’ about Alberta sovereignty
Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said the absence of research by the province supports the idea that Smith is telling the truth when she says her government doesn’t endorse Alberta separating from Canada.
“Smith has been kind of cute about dangling that possibility of separation and then backing away from it. And you know, this really does just confirm that it’s a negotiating tactic, not a plan,” Young said.
“Presumably, if they were seriously considering separation as an option, they would, in fact, be asking the public service to do some research.”
UCP tight-lipped about investigation
Smith’s office did not respond to questions sent by the IJF on Oct. 16 and again on Oct. 29.
In response to questions from the IJF, Marisa Breeze, press secretary to Finance Minister Nate Horner, said the department conducted another search for documents related to the economic impacts of various separation and sovereignty scenarios, looking back through years of information and consultation records.
Again, staff found nothing.
“Alberta’s government responds to all Access to Information requests in accordance with the law and after thorough searches of relevant records. In this case, Treasury Board and Finance staff conducted a comprehensive search and confirmed with the ATI applicants that there are no records responsive to their requests,” Breeze told the IJF in an email.
“The civil service does not provide analysis on hypothetical scenarios or forecast on policy.”
Kaplan said he finds the ministry’s comments surprising, “if not amusing.”
A provincial budget is full of hypotheticals as it relates to economic and energy price assumptions, as well as policies and forecasts for the fiscal impact, he said. “As part of budget planning, (Treasury Board and Finance) prepares fiscal and economic projections on various hypothetical scenarios such as higher oil prices, lower oil prices, lack of pipeline access, full pipeline access, etc.”
Due to the uncertainty surrounding implementation of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports, Alberta’s 2025 budget included high and low-tariff impact scenarios to illustrate “a range of potential outcomes” for the province’s economy.
“Why does TBF have an Economics and Revenue Forecasting Division, if not to perform basic risk management analysis of hypothetical policies (such as separation or its variants) that are now being vigorously discussed in the public realm by many, many Albertans,” including those who appeared at the Alberta Next town halls this summer, Kaplan asked.
Breeze did not answer questions to clarify the statement from the ministry.