Alberta’s government said Friday it has picked the University of Calgary to study the potential costs of the province leaving Canada.
It has also formed what it calls an expert advisory panel to review the university’s report and provide a separate assessment.
The panel is led by economist Jack Mintz, a go-to expert for Alberta governments who has served on several advisory groups and panels in recent decades.
It also features business leaders and former politicians Janice MacKinnon, a Saskatchewan NDP finance minister, and Ted Morton, an Alberta Progressive Conservative finance minister.
The United Conservative Party government said in a news release that the panel’s involvement “will allow for further and potentially differing views to be shared, ensuring Albertans are equipped with all the facts.”
Panel keeps ‘full and independent control over the final report’
In 2001, Morton was a signatory to the infamous Firewall Letter sent by Stephen Harper, before he became prime minister, to then-Alberta premier Ralph Klein. It called on Klein to take several steps to give Alberta greater independence from Ottawa.
The province said the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy would “retain full and independent control over the final report.”
The school’s director, Martha Hall Findlay, said in the release that the school is pleased to do the analysis and she appreciates the independence.
Premier Danielle Smith and Finance Minister Jason Nixon have hinted at the report in recent weeks.
They said Albertans deserve to be informed ahead of the province’s Oct. 19 referendum, which will see Albertans vote on whether to remain in Canada or begin the process of holding a second, binding vote on separation.
Smith has said she doesn’t think many of those in the separatist movement understand what separation would entail.
Adding up the cost of separation
She estimated earlier this month that quitting Confederation could cost the province $400 billion — including Alberta’s share of the national debt, NATO commitments, the formation of armed forces, and other startup costs — plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion.
Separatist leaders have pushed back on Smith’s math, claiming that forming a new country would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and that an independent Alberta would post surpluses once tax revenue stops going to Ottawa.
The province said the university’s report is to examine transition costs, economic impacts, risks, and potential savings.
“Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring Albertans have access to objective, evidence-based analysis so they can be confident in their decision,” it said in the release.
Nixon’s press secretary, Juliana Rodriguez, said the government has budgeted up to $1.5 million for the report and the panel’s work, but didn’t provide a breakdown.
Opposition NDP calls panel unnecessary
“The cost reflects the importance of this work and the potential outcomes,” Rodriguez said, adding that it also ensures the work is done “properly, independently and credibly.”
Opposition NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi called it an unnecessary undertaking.
“We already know the cost of separation is enormous,” Nenshi said in a statement Friday.
“We don’t need a recycled panel of Danielle Smith’s inner circle to tell us that.”
The government said the report and the panel’s assessment are expected to be shared by the end of summer, so Albertans have time to consider it before the referendum.
NDP asks spy agency to look into potential foreign interference
Nenshi has said Smith’s decision to put Alberta’s future in Canada to a vote at all is irresponsible, and on Friday, he wrote to the director of the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service, asking for public updates on potential attempts at foreign interference between now and October.
He also asked CSIS to assess whether the vote could take place in a safe manner, citing a massive data breach earlier this year involving a separatist group that had obtained Alberta’s official voter list containing the names and addresses of nearly three million people. Three separate investigations into the leak are underway, including by the RCMP and Elections Alberta.
CSIS did not immediately respond to questions Friday.
Smith’s office said Nenshi was fearmongering and reiterated that the premier has clearance to receive CSIS briefings on national security issues. Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, said she has started receiving briefings but didn’t provide details.
Blackett also said that Public Safety Minister Mike Ellis and Technology Minister Nate Glubish have been tasked with monitoring “influence campaigns” and that they would share any concerns with authorities.
Elections Alberta will count votes
Smith has said she will vote for Alberta to remain in Canada, but has cited two competing petitions on either side of the separation debate as the reason she’s putting the question to a vote.
The petition advancing the separatist cause was thrown out by a judge last month, and Elections Alberta has yet to verify the nearly 302,000 signatures its organizers say were collected.
Smith’s government filed an appeal of the judge’s decision this week. The document says the province plans to argue the judge made 14 mistakes in her ruling, including her determination that the province neglected its duty to consult First Nations.
The cost of the fall referendum, which also involves nine other government-sponsored questions around immigration and constitutional reform, has not been calculated.
Elections Alberta has said it will need to hire at least 60,000 workers to facilitate the vote and hand-count the ballots as required under provincial law.
The 2023 general election in Alberta cost $37 million, but required about 13,000 election officials.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on June 12, 2026.