Food prices in Canada are expected to rise by four to six per cent in 2026, adding nearly $1,000 a year to the grocery bill for the average family of four, according to a new national report.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2026, released in December by Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab in collaboration with universities across the country, forecasts that the average family of four will spend up to $17,500 on food this year — an increase of as much as $995 from 2025. Food prices are now 27 per cent higher than they were five years ago.
“Despite steadier inflation, Canadian families are still feeling the squeeze at the grocery store,” said Sylvain Charlebois, project lead and professor at Dalhousie University, in a news release. “Our forecast for 2026 makes one thing clear: food affordability will remain a major pressure point in the year ahead.”
Alberta likely to experience food price increases above national average
The report projects that Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Quebec will experience food price increases above the national average. Meat and vegetables are expected to be disproportionately affected, with beef and chicken prices seeing some of the steepest increases.
Beef prices surged in 2025, rising 19 per cent in the first quarter alone and remaining 23 per cent above the five-year average by year’s end. Researchers attribute the spike to prolonged drought in Canada’s leading beef-producing regions, which has reduced cattle supply to its lowest level since the late 1980s.
“Reduced supply and consistent demand create upward pressure,” said Stuart Smyth, campus lead at the University of Saskatchewan, in a news release. “Consumers intending to keep buying Canadian beef will need to be increasingly conscious of optimal purchasing opportunities.”
Growing concerns about food insecurity
The report also highlights growing concerns around food insecurity. Nearly 4.5 million Canadian households — about one-quarter of the total — are considered food insecure. Data from Statistics Canada shows that in 2024, 25.5 per cent of people living in the 10 provinces experienced some level of food insecurity, affecting approximately 10 million people, including 2.5 million children.
Food insecurity ranges from worrying about running out of food to skipping meals or going days without eating due to financial constraints. Moderate and severe food insecurity have increased the most, with children, Indigenous communities and racialized groups
disproportionately affected.
Rising costs across the economy continue to compound the problem. The report adds that inflation is expected to settle around two per cent in late 2026.
However, ongoing trade disputes with the United States, labour shortages linked to changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, and climate-related disruptions to agriculture are expected to continue to put upward pressure on food prices.
Food costs part of deeper structural challenge
Evan Fraser, director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph, says food prices reflect deeper structural challenges.
“Prices are only one piece of Canada’s complex food industry story,” Fraser said in a news release. “Affordable access to food is a matter of security, and tracking these trends nationally is critical.”
The report notes that new federal measures, including the Grocery Code of Conduct set to take effect in January 2026 and mandatory front-of-pack nutrition labelling, may help consumers make more informed choices.
However, with the top four grocery chains controlling more than 70 per cent of the market, researchers say it remains unclear whether these policies will meaningfully ease costs at the checkout.