A report released Wednesday by the Alberta government says if the province wants to separate from Canada, it would need to shell out up to $170 billion and hire at least 70,000 civil servants to do it.
The report, which the province commissioned from the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, says the minimum cost would be $50 billion over the first five years, and it could top out at $170 billion, though several factors could change that estimate.
The figure covers capital costs to acquire infrastructure, supplies, and property currently paid for by Ottawa; hiring staff to manage and oversee the transition; and Alberta’s portion of the federal debt.
The university qualified many of its estimates by saying “no amount of analysis” could easily predict the effect of separation, as the deciding factors that inform the cost are out of Alberta’s hands.
“What we can say is that this would be a momentous decision,” the report states.
“Alberta separating from Canada and becoming an independent country involves far more than just drawing new borders and building a new state, picking new politicians and deciding on new policies.
“It completely changes how public services, trade, taxes and laws work.”
UCP commissioned report to give Albertans facts before vote
Premier Danielle Smith’s government commissioned the report in June to give Albertans a better understanding of the costs of separation ahead of a referendum next month on whether Albertans want to remain in Canada or hold a binding vote on quitting Confederation.
Smith had previously estimated a much higher price tag for separation ($400 billion) than Wednesday’s report, but her finance minister said the costs and logistics are still prohibitive.
Jason Nixon said in a statement that it illustrates why the province is urging Albertans to vote to stay in Canada on Oct. 19.
“Alberta’s government has always been clear: we support a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” Nixon said.
“That is what we will continue fighting for each day.”
Report considered two scenarios
The university’s report, which the government budgeted $1.5 million for, is broken down into an overview and four technical reports ranging from how separation would work to fiscal considerations.
It looks at two scenarios: the first is that Alberta’s separation from Canada would go smoothly, with Ottawa and other trade partners putting up few barriers; the second assumes Alberta has to go through fierce negotiations on every aspect of the transition.
The first scenario sees a future where an independent Alberta could prosper, with a long-term gross domestic product rate 3.4 per cent higher than if the province stayed in Canada, government surpluses, opportunities for tax cuts, as well as higher employment and wages.
The report also lists some “opportunities” for Alberta should it choose to separate, such as being free of federal climate legislation slowing down oil sands development and the Canada Health Act preventing more private health-care options.
Under a difficult scenario, the report notes separation might ultimately not be possible.
If it does occur, it would happen only after years of negotiations in which Ottawa makes few concessions and imposes numerous trade barriers.
Alberta would also struggle for recognition from the international community should the rest of Canada oppose the province’s independence push, the report says. The U.S. could also bully Alberta on trade and demand a share of Alberta’s oil revenues in exchange for market access if Canada cuts off coastal shipping.
Overall, this scenario sees Alberta’s GDP dropping 16.2 per cent over the long term with substantial government deficits, higher taxes, lower employment and lower wages.
The report also explores potential scenarios related to currency, setting up a military, mail and international shipping for residents, border services and air traffic control.
Separtist calls report ‘a complete joke’
Jeff Rath, a lawyer and leading face in Alberta’s separatist movement, called the report “a complete joke.”
He said the university made several false assumptions and disputed that Alberta would have to take on any of the federal debt.
Rath was also confident the United States administration would prove to be an ally of an independent Alberta and sign a trade agreement immediately.
“As far as I’m concerned, the report is completely one-sided, and it’s a complete waste of time,” Rath said in an interview Wednesday.
Smith called for a referendum earlier this year.
The premier has said years of federal government interference have stymied Alberta’s economy and frustrated residents to the point that some see separation as a credible alternative worth addressing in a referendum.
Polls have consistently suggested a large majority of Albertans want to stay in Canada.
Smith’s critics say this underscores their contention that she is both arsonist and firefighter, calling for a vote to break up Canada while championing the cause of staying united.
They say she has called the vote not to address smouldering resentments toward Ottawa, but simply to appease hardline separatists in her United Conservative Party.
— With files from Dayne Patterson in Calgary
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2026.