The upcoming referendum has been framed as a highly polarized debate between pro-independence and anti-independence camps. But recent polling that shows dwindling support for independence suggests a number of Albertans now belong to a less visible group: those who once supported independence, but now have doubts.
Charles, a man from Calgary who asked that his last name not be used out of concern for political pushback, discovered Alberta separatism around 2020. He was motivated at the time by anxieties over globalization at the expense of regional identity.
“I believed that a truly independent Alberta could preserve and strengthen its culture in the face of national and international pressure to conform to a beige world,” he wrote in an email to the Calgary Journal.
Questioning the movement’s direction
Although Charles still believes in that Albertan identity, lately he has taken issue with the separatist movement’s leadership.
“The movement was taken over by, or perhaps always was run, by people who turned out to be less interested in independence than they were in carving out Alberta resources for American exploitation beyond what they are now,” he wrote. “The growing calls to become the 51st state were more than sufficient to poison my enthusiasm.”
Charles is not the only one having second thoughts. Recent polling suggests support for separatism is declining as the vote approaches.
Darian, another Calgarian who also asked to be identified only by his first name, was introduced to separatist ideas around 2023, and was one of the first to promote the cause within his own social circles.
Darian’s interest grew following Mark Carney’s 2025 electoral victory, citing economic concerns and a belief that independence was one of the few avenues back to normality.
Rows of referendum signs alongside a road in Southwest Calgary on Oct. 10th, 2026. With campaigning in its final days, the province braces for a consequential October 19th. PHOTO: GRAEME ELLIS, CALGARY JOURNAL 
A post in a middle of a field with two arrows going in opposite directions. Showing how there is a separation of ideas with the referendum. Photo was taken on Oct. 10th, 2026. PHOTO: GRAEME ELLIS, CALGARY JOURNAL Credit: Josh Sorenson 
A row of “No to the Nines” campaign signs along 17th Ave. S.W. polls suggest that it will be a uphill battle for Alberta separatists during their final days of campaigning. PHOTO: GRAEME ELLIS, CALGARY JOURNAL
“I wanted to show that, you know, we aren’t happy,” he said.
But like Charles, Darian has become wary of foreign influence within the separatist movement after seeing leadership take pro-Israel stances.
“I’m not sure what that has to do with Alberta,” said Darian.
Torn between Alberta and Canada
He also shares a fear of lost identity. But in Darian’s case, that identity is national.
“I think [independence] separates us from other like-minded Canadians that did fight in World Wars — for Canada, and they didn’t just do it for Alberta,” said Darian.
Today, he is more drawn to the brand of Canadian nationalism promoted by personalities like Don Cherry in the 1990s and less interested in fighting for an independent Alberta.
Darian is still unsure which camp he would support if independence came to a final, binding referendum.
“I don’t know how I would vote today.”