On Monday, Albertans vote on whether to stay in Canada or hold another binding referendum on quitting Canada.
If the vote goes as polls suggest, a majority of Albertans will mark an X to stay in Confederation, and Premier Danielle Smith has said if that’s so, she expects everyone to accept it and move on. Leaders of the independence movement contest that.
And political watchers are divided about whether separation — previously a fringe sentiment — will now be a prominent, permanent feature of Alberta’s political landscape, as in Quebec.
On Monday, Albertans vote on whether to stay in Canada or hold another binding referendum on quitting Canada.
If the vote goes as polls suggest, a majority of Albertans will mark an X to stay in Confederation, and Premier Danielle Smith has said if that’s so, she expects everyone to accept it and move on. Leaders of the independence movement contest that.
And political watchers are divided about whether separation — previously a fringe sentiment — will now be a prominent, permanent feature of Alberta’s political landscape, as in Quebec.
“This has sometimes been referred to in Quebec as the ‘knife at the throat strategy,’ where Quebec could sort of push its agenda because we’ve had that incredible threat of a referendum,” he says.
But former UCP premier Jason Kenney, speaking in Edmonton earlier this week, said the knife analogy cuts both ways.
“The idea of making the threat by holding a knife to the throat of the federation is how you end up as a have-not province, like Quebec, instead of the ultimate have province like Alberta,” he said.
“You want to talk about a lack of investor confidence? The next year, moving towards an actual vote on separation when the first one is won — the economic consequences would be catastrophic.”
Could defeat see the separatists disappear?
Political science professor Graeme Young says to understand Alberta’s future, one could look at Scotland.
Young, at the University of Glasgow in Scotland, grew up in Ontario and kept interest in Alberta’s prospective separation from afar as Scotland bolsters another push to leave the United Kingdom.
He says he doesn’t expect Alberta’s separatist campaign will last. He believes the movement could deflate with a different federal political party in power. And he says it can’t draw from the same wellspring of national identity as exists in Scotland.
Young says Scotland’s 2014 campaign was, in large part, defeated by uncertainty about the economics of independence, including pensions, currency, finances and its role in the European Union.
And while Scotland has been preparing for more than a decade for another run at independence, Alberta’s movement is underprepared, Young says.
“(Alberta’s case) has been put together quite hastily,” he says. “It does not seem that they have invested as much time and energy into that case as one would expect for setting up a new country.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2026.